About

ExpectedFootball is built for the student of the game: tactical shape, bench depth, press intensity. Insight over pedantry. Every metric has to earn its place.

Numbers never stand alone. Each page leads with a written verdict, then the charts that prove it. If a graphic cannot carry a headline, it does not ship. Thin samples render in caution amber rather than pretending to be certain.

Live data comes from Sportmonks tables in the warehouse, queried server-side. We do not mix models from other providers.

xG

Expected goals. Chance quality, not finishing. Shown to two decimal places. Sportmonks model.

xPts

Expected points from chance quality over a match or season. Peer to points, never mixed into them.

xGP

Expected goals prevented. Keeper performance versus the shots they faced.

xG / shot

Chance quality per attempt. Flagged amber when the sample is thin.

Pressure Index

Sportmonks minute-by-minute pressure. Relative: one side is positive at a time.

Open-play xG

Expected goals from open play, excluding set pieces and penalties.

Set-piece xG

Expected goals from set plays. The identity a shot map cannot show on this provider.

Deserved form

Last ten results read through xG difference, not through W/D/L colour.

Sportmonks is the only data source. Scorelines, lineups, events, xG, pressure, squads, and season statistics are read from `sm_*` warehouse tables. There is no shot map: Sportmonks does not store shot coordinates. Pressure Index is the press proxy. Chance sources (open play, set pieces) replace a fake xG race.

Ingest currently runs every six hours. Match reports are designed to appear minutes after full time. Processing cards in this shell show that wait instead of spinning.