MLS · 22 Mar · Providence Park
LA Galaxy
1–1
Portland Timbers
Recap
Sources complete · 3 of 3 models
01
Modelled xG 1.76-0.40 against a 1-1 scoreline.
02
Shots 22-8, in the box 16-5.
03
Pressure Index minutes: LA 64' · POR 34' of 99.

What the models saw→

Goals against expected, both sides

LA Galaxy
0123 xG
SMSportmonks2.12
AFAPI-Football1.76
ASAAmerican Soccer Analysis2.81
Portland Timbers
0123 xG
AFAPI-Football0.40
ASAAmerican Soccer Analysis0.59
SMSportmonks0.36
Goals scoredEach model's xGInside the noise floor

Each provider runs its own shot model over the same shots. They weight chance quality differently, so they disagree. Gaps under 0.3 xG are noise.

Models that reported put LA Galaxy in a 1.05 xG band. A wide spread. The models are reading the chances differently.

3 of 3 models complete. Values sit side by side. They are not averaged. How we handle this

Who had the match→

Pressure Index by minute · not PPDA · LA 64' · POR 34' of 99

13' Velde
30' Klauss
LA Galaxy
Portland Timbers
Even
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Above the line: LA Galaxy doing moreBelow the line: Portland Timbers doing moreCircle: goal · ring: miss · bar: card · diamond: subFilled: LA Galaxy · outlined: Portland Timbers

Peak Pressure Index at 34'. LA 64' · POR 34' of 99

Who made the match→

15 players · measured against their own per-90 baselines

Decisive
Edwin Cerrillo
M · 94'
8.2
rating
94
minutes

94 minutes

Unseen work
Justin Haak
D · 94'
7.3
rating
94
minutes

94 minutes

Off the pace
James Marcinkowski
G · 94'
6.2
rating
94
minutes
1
save

1 save

Component ratings out of ten. An average night is 6.5. Above is better than that player's own baseline, below is worse. Ratings need 300 minutes of history.

Player
Min
Att→
Cre→
Pass→
Def→
Carlos Garcés
94
6.3
6.4
7.7
5.2
94 minutes
Edwin Cerrillo
94
5.9
5.5
7.6
6.1
94 minutes
Gabriel Pec
94
5.6
5.8
8.1
5.1
2 on target
James Marcinkowski
94
–
–
8.0
5.9
1 save
João Klauss
94
7.2
6.5
7.0
6.2
1 goal, 4 on target
Justin Haak
94
6.4
5.6
7.7
7.1
94 minutes
Marco Reus
94
5.0
8.0
6.7
5.5
1 assist, 7 key passes
Julián Aude
75
7.0
6.4
7.1
7.8
6 tackles and interceptions
Elijah Wynder
72
6.0
7.8
6.5
4.6
72 minutes
Erik Thommy
63
6.2
6.6
7.9
8.2
63 minutes
Miki Yamane
62
5.9
5.8
7.8
7.2
4 tackles and interceptions
Mauricio Cuevas
32
5.6
8.2
5.8
8.1
32 minutes
Harbor Miller
31
5.9
5.3
8.4
5.5
31 minutes
Matheus Nascimento
22
–
–
–
–
22 minutes
Lucas Sanabria
19
5.0
5.1
8.4
5.2
19 minutes
Portland Timbers
Player
Min
Att→
Cre→
Pass→
Def→
Brandon Bye
94
5.5
7.1
5.3
4.8
94 minutes
Diego Chará
94
6.3
7.4
7.0
7.4
5 tackles and interceptions
Finn Surman
94
6.2
8.3
4.9
4.7
94 minutes
James Pantemis
94
–
–
4.7
7.2
6 saves
Jímer Fory
94
6.3
5.5
5.6
7.2
5 tackles and interceptions
Joao Ortíz
94
7.9
5.7
6.8
8.3
4 tackles and interceptions
Antony Alves
84
5.3
8.5
7.8
6.2
1 assist
David da Costa
68
5.6
5.1
4.9
5.2
68 minutes
Kristoffer Velde
68
8.4
5.5
4.8
5.5
1 goal
Kevin Kelsy
23
5.0
5.0
6.9
5.3
23 minutes
Kamal Miller
19
5.7
6.1
7.2
5.1
19 minutes
Alex Bonetig
71
6.0
6.2
4.7
5.6
71 minutes
Alexander Aravena
26
5.0
5.3
6.2
5.0
26 minutes
Ian Smith
26
5.8
5.3
4.7
4.9
26 minutes
Felipe Mora
10
–
–
–
–
10 minutes

What it changes

Season to date
−4.6
Points vs expected points
Western Conference · 20 played
13th
Conference rank
Season xG 6.3 · goals 4
−2.3
Paintsil · goals over expected

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